# K4LSH1_OPS

Multi-coin LLM-driven 15-minute binary options trading bot on Kalshi. Three independent bots trade DOGE, SOL, and ETH simultaneously using a two-tier LLM decision engine.

## Architecture

```
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                        K4LSH1_OPS FLEET                         │
├──────────┬──────────┬───────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  DOGE 🐶 │  SOL 🔮  │  ETH 💎  ← 3 independent processes        │
│  .154    │  .71     │  .189    ← proxy-backed Binance intel     │
│  doge.db │  sol.db  │  eth.db  ← isolated tick/decision DBs     │
└──────────┴──────────┴───────────────────────────────────────────┘
        │                              │
        ▼                              ▼
┌──────────────┐            ┌──────────────────┐
│  qwen3.5:4b  │  borderline│  ornith:latest   │
│  MacBook     │──────────▶ │  GamingPC .186   │
│  (0.4s gate) │  escalate  │  RTX 3070 (0.86s)│
└──────────────┘            └──────────────────┘
        │
        ▼
┌──────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  Kalshi V2 API (api.elections.kalshi.com)    │
│  /portfolio/events/orders — bid/ask format   │
└──────────────────────────────────────────────┘
```

## Data Inputs Per Decision

Every 5-minute decision cycle feeds the LLM a full market snapshot:

| Source | Data | Frequency |
|--------|------|-----------|
| Kraken | Spot price (per coin) | 20s tick |
| Binance (via proxy) | 24h change, 24h range, 24h volume | 5min cached |
| Kraken OHLC | 1m/5m/15m/1h/2h multi-timeframe trend | per cycle |
| SQLite ticks | RSI(14) on 1m and 5m timeframes | per cycle |
| Kalshi orderbook | YES/NO ask, spread, depth imbalance | per cycle |
| Fear&Greed Index | Market sentiment (0-100) | 5min cached |
| Mempool.space | BTC fast fee (sat/vB) | 5min cached |
| Orders DB | Per-coin 24h win rate, recent performance | per cycle |
| Volatility calc | Market regime (choppy/trending/normal) | per cycle |

## Decision Engine

### Two-Tier LLM Voting

1. **Fast gate** — `qwen3.5:4b` on MacBook (0.4s). Handles clear signals. If confident (≥0.70) → trade immediately.
2. **Deep verify** — `ornith:latest` on GamingPC RTX 3070 (0.86s). Called when gate is borderline (<0.70 or unclear). Final verdict.

### Safety Gates (checked before any order)

- **RSI contrarian** — RSI > 85 → auto-fade DOWN, RSI < 15 → auto-fade UP (no LLM needed)
- **BTC macro correlation** — Won't short alts when BTC 24h > +0.5% unless conf > 0.78
- **Adaptive confidence** — Win rate adjusts minimum confidence (loses → tighter, wins → relaxed)
- **Self-adapting overrides** — qwen analyzes last 20 resolved bets every 10 min, tunes thresholds
- **Daily loss cap** — Hard stop at configurable daily loss limit
- **Market expiration guard** — Verifies market open before placing order

### Position Sizing

- Max $1.00 per trade (configurable via `max_spend_cents`)
- Confidence-scaled contracts: <0.70 = x1, 0.70-0.80 = x2, 0.80-0.90 = x3, >0.90 = x4
- Auto-capped so `contracts × price ≤ max_spend`
- Taker at ask when ≤ 55¢, maker at 50¢ when book is thin

### Hedge Engine

Scans every cycle for open positions where buying the opposite side locks ≥8¢ profit. Auto-executes counter-orders.

## Files

| File | Purpose |
|------|---------|
| `bot.py` | Main bot — decision engine, Kalshi client, order placement |
| `dashboard.py` | Flask dashboard — fleet view at `/fleet`, single-coin at `/` |
| `test_bot.py` | Unit tests — momentum, RSI, hedge, decision logic, LLM parsing |
| `config.json` | Base config (shared defaults) |
| `doge.json` / `sol.json` / `eth.json` | Per-coin configs with proxies, LLM URLs, DB paths |

## Quick Start

```bash
# Launch all 3 bots
cd ~/kalshi-bot
.venv/bin/python bot.py --config doge.json --lock doge &
.venv/bin/python bot.py --config sol.json --lock sol &
.venv/bin/python bot.py --config eth.json --lock eth &

# Launch dashboard
.venv/bin/python dashboard.py

# Run tests
.venv/bin/python test_bot.py
```

## Dashboard

- **Fleet view**: `http://localhost:5053/fleet` — all 3 coins, color-coded, PNL, decision trace
- **Single coin**: `http://localhost:5053` — controls, orderbook, momentum chart
- **API**: `GET /api/fleet` — all coins JSON, `GET /api/state` — single coin state

## Infrastructure

| Component | Host | Purpose |
|-----------|------|---------|
| MacBook | localhost:11434 | qwen3.5:4b fast gate |
| GamingPC | 10.30.20.186:11434 | ornith:latest deep verify (RTX 3070) |
| proxy1 | 10.30.20.154:3128 | DOGE Binance intel (Brazil exit) |
| proxy2 | 10.30.20.71:3128 | SOL Binance intel (EU exit) |
| proxy3 | 10.30.20.189:3128 | ETH Binance intel (Brazil exit) |
| Gitea | 10.30.20.149:3000 | Code repo |