# decisions

ticker: KXETH15M-26AUG022115-15
mode: AUTO
momentum: DOWN
llm_vote: DOWN
final: DOWN
reason: ornith: DOWN spike 0.10% → DOWN conf=0.72
llm_why:
RSI oversold + Fear, but ETH up 1.37% on choppy tape suggests fading the sharp down-spike is correct


ticker: KXETH15M-26AUG031515-15
mode: AUTO
momentum: DOWN
llm_vote: SKIP
llm_why: [split qwen=SKIP(0.50) ornith=SKIP(0.50)] No clear spike to fade; neutral RSI, weak momentum
final: SKIP
reason:
passes: [split qwen=SKIP(0.50) ornith=SKIP(0.50)] No clear spike to fade; neutral RSI, weak momentum


ticker: KXETH15M-26AUG032215-15
mode: AUTO
momentum: UP
llm_vote: SKIP
llm_why: [split qwen=SKIP(0.50) ornith=SKIP(0.85)] Fear&Greed=25 extreme fear, RSI neutral, no clear
final: SKIP
reason:
passes: [split qwen=SKIP(0.50) ornith=SKIP(0.85)] Fear&Greed=25 extreme fear, RSI neutral, no clear 


ticker: KXETH15M-26AUG040030-30
mode: AUTO
momentum: DOWN
llm_vote: SKIP
llm_why: [split qwen=SKIP(0.50) ornith=SKIP(0.50)] No clear spike to fade; neutral RSI, BTC bullish m
final: SKIP
reason:
passes: [split qwen=SKIP(0.50) ornith=SKIP(0.50)] No clear spike to fade; neutral RSI, BTC bullish m


ticker: KXETH15M-26AUG040100-00
mode: AUTO
momentum: DOWN
llm_vote: SKIP
llm_why: [split qwen=SKIP(0.50) ornith=SKIP(0.50)] Extreme fear + oversold RSI = high noise, no clear
final: SKIP
reason:
passes: [split qwen=SKIP(0.50) ornith=SKIP(0.50)] Extreme fear + oversold RSI = high noise, no clear


ticker: KXETH15M-26AUG040245-45
mode: AUTO
momentum: DOWN
llm_vote: SKIP
llm_why: [split qwen=SKIP(0.50) ornith=SKIP(0.50)] Extreme Fear + oversold RSI = choppy, no clear edg
final: SKIP
reason:
passes: [split qwen=SKIP(0.50) ornith=SKIP(0.50)] Extreme Fear + oversold RSI = choppy, no clear edg


# events

level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG022215-15 @ 50¢ — DOWN: DOWN spike 0.06% conf=0.65 [RSI oversold + Fear, but 15m momentum DOWN suggests fading t]


level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG022230-30 @ 50¢ — DOWN: UP spike 0.05% conf=0.78 [RSI 17 oversold + BTC bearish macro, fade the spike]


level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG022245-45 @ 50¢ — DOWN: DOWN spike 0.01% conf=0.65 [Sharp 1h/2h decline, RSI(5m)=44 neutral, fading short-term w]


level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG022300-00 @ 50¢ — DOWN: DOWN spike 0.16% conf=0.65 [RSI oversold + BTC bearish, fade the sharp down move]


level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG022315-15 @ 50¢ — DOWN: UP spike 0.02% conf=0.65 [RSI(1m)=73 overbought, fading sharp UP spike]


level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG022315-15 @ 50¢ — DOWN: DOWN spike 0.11% conf=0.65 [Sharp 2h downtrend + RSI(35) neutral, fading short-term dip ]


level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG022345-45 @ 50¢ — DOWN: DOWN spike 0.02% conf=0.65 [RSI(5m)=27 oversold, BTC bearish macro, 1h/2h declining tren]


level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG030000-00 @ 50¢ — DOWN: DOWN spike 0.03% conf=0.65 [Sharp 1h/2h downtrend + BTC bearish macro, fading the down s]


level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG030045-45 @ 50¢ — DOWN: UP spike 0.11% conf=0.75 [[ENSEMBLE: 0U/2D/0S] qwen3.5=DOWN | ornith=DOWN]


level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG030130-30 @ 50¢ — DOWN: UP spike 0.04% conf=0.75 [[ENSEMBLE: 0U/2D/0S] qwen3.5=DOWN | ornith=DOWN]


level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG030215-15 @ 50¢ — DOWN: DOWN spike 0.04% conf=0.70 [[ENSEMBLE: 0U/2D/0S] qwen3.5=DOWN | ornith=DOWN]


level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG030345-45 @ 50¢ — DOWN: DOWN spike 0.09% conf=0.80 [[ENSEMBLE: 0U/2D/1S] qwen3.5=SKIP | ornith=DOWN | qwen3.5-gp]


level: info
msg:
POST NO x1 KXETH15M-26AUG030600-00 @ 50¢ — DOWN: UP spike 0.11% conf=0.80 [[ENSEMBLE: 0U/2D/0S] qwen3.5=DOWN | ornith=DOWN]


level: error
msg:
loop error: HTTPSConnectionPool(host='api.elections.kalshi.com', port=443): Read timed out. (read timeout=15)


